Commodities and AI

Commodities

Canada is rich in natural resources, and the TSX is often influenced by commodity prices. Two of the biggest drivers are oil and gold.

When oil and gold rise, it can support parts of the Canadian market, especially energy and materials companies. When they fall, those same sectors can come under pressure.

Oil Rises as Gulf Tensions Escalate

Iran struck U.S. and Kuwaiti military-linked facilities overnight with missiles and drones. U.S. and coalition defences intercepted many of them, but Kuwait’s main airport was still damaged, with casualties reported.

The U.S. responded with strikes on Qeshm Island and also disabled a tanker in the Gulf that it said did not comply with warnings.

President Trump says talks with Iran are still ongoing. Iranian media says no talks have taken place. Either way, the fighting is real, and markets are paying attention.

Source - TradingView Charting Library  retrieved June 2, 2026

Oil moved higher overnight, with Brent up about 2.5% and WTI up about 2.6%. In our model, this moved oil into a bullish trend.

Shipping costs are also rising. Maersk has said disruption around the Strait of Hormuz is adding roughly $500 million a month in extra costs.

The key takeaway: oil may not be fully pricing in the risk yet. If the conflict continues to disrupt shipping, energy prices and inflation expectations could face more pressure.

Source: Associated Press, retrieved June 3, 2026.

This note and chart is for general information only and is not personal financial advice. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell any investment. Markets can change quickly, and all investing involves risk. Please speak with a qualified professional about your own situation.

Gold

Gold continues to play an important role in global reserves. Recently, gold overtook U.S. Treasuries as the largest reserve asset held by central banks as indicated by the chart below sourced from the US Department of Treasury. That does not mean gold has replaced the U.S. dollar as the world’s main currency, but it does show that central banks are placing more value on gold as a reserve asset during uncertain times.

For investors, this matters because gold is often viewed as a hedge during periods of geopolitical stress, inflation concern, or declining confidence in paper currencies.

This note and chart is for general information only and is not personal financial advice. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell any investment. Markets can change quickly, and all investing involves risk. Please speak with a qualified professional about your own situation.

It’s an AI Market

On November 30, 2022, OpenAI released ChatGPT as a free research preview. That helped launch what many now call the “generative AI era.”

Since then, AI-related stocks have been a major driver of U.S. market returns. According to J.P. Morgan Asset Management's Michael Cembalest, AI-related stocks accounted for approximately 75% of S&P 500 returns since ChatGPT launched in November 2022.

That concentration matters. It means the market’s gains have been powerful, but also heavily dependent on a relatively small group of companies tied to AI growth.

This note and chart is for general information only and is not personal financial advice. It is not a recommendation to buy or sell any investment. Markets can change quickly, and all investing involves risk. Please speak with a qualified professional about your own situation.

The table below reflects trend signals published by Hedgeye Risk Management as of May 28, 2026.

These signals  are one input among many considered by our investment team and may not align with positioning in any client portfolio. Individual securities and commodities referenced may not be suitable for any particular investor. Clients should not act on this information without consulting their portfolio manager.

Tactical Trend Changes📈
Technical trends are analytical observations and do not guarantee future results

Natural Gas…..Neutral to Bullish
Oil…..Neutral to Bullish
Oil and Gas Equities…..Neutral to Bullish
UraniumBearish to Neutral

 Source Hedgeye Risk Management - retrieved June 3, 2026

Bullish: a view that the price of a security or market may rise, subject to significant uncertainty and risk of loss. Bearish: a view that the price may fall, subject to significant uncertainty and risk of loss. Neutral: a view that the price may remain relatively stable. These terms reflect third-party and/or general market views and are not recommendations or predictions.