Has Inflation Peaked?

Our independent research firm, Hedgeye Risk Management, projects that inflation has peaked. Based on our analysis, inflationary pressures have likely reached their high point and are expected to moderate over time, though volatility may persist across sectors.

**Source Hedgeye Risk Management - Retrieved July 8, 2026**

According to the research framework developed by Hedgeye Risk Management, decelerating inflation is a key characteristic of both Quad 1 (accelerating economic growth with decelerating inflation) and Quad 4 (decelerating economic growth with decelerating inflation).

Based on Hedgeye's monthly Quad classifications, June was identified as Quad 1. Looking ahead, the framework suggested the economy could transition toward slower growth over the summer while inflation continued to decelerate.

Source Hedgeye Risk Management - Retrieved July 8, 2026 - Hedgeye’s reported long-term directional accuracy figure is its own self-reported statistic; the methodology and measurement period are available from Hedgeye on request. Past accuracy is not indicative of future results

The chart above shows Hedgeye's monthly Quad classifications and probabilities.

Based on our current assessment, we have maintained—and expect to continue—a more defensive portfolio positioning throughout the summer months, with an emphasis on investment themes that have historically aligned with a Quad 4 environment.

The chart below illustrates the preferred asset positioning within each of Hedgeye's Quad classifications.

The table below reflects trend signals published by Hedgeye Risk Management as of July 8, 2026.

These signals are one input among many considered by our investment team and may not align with positioning in any client portfolio. Individual securities and commodities referenced may not be suitable for any particular investor. Clients should not act on this information without consulting their portfolio manager.

Tactical Trend Changes📈
Technical trends are analytical observations and do not guarantee future results

Long Term Treasuries……..Neutral to Bearish
Corporate IG Bonds……….Bullish to Neutral
Consumer Discretionary…Neutral to Bearish
Germany…………………….Bullish to Neutral

Source Hedgeye Risk Management - retrieved July 8, 2026

Bullish: a view that the price of a security or market may rise, subject to significant uncertainty and risk of loss.Bearish: a view that the price may fall, subject to significant uncertainty and risk of loss.Neutral: a view that the price may remain relatively stable. These terms reflect third-party and/or general market views and are not recommendations or predictions.

Has Inflation Peaked?